The planning fallacy

                      "Article No. 03"

     

         The planning fallacy:

               The planning fallacy is the likelihood to underestimate the time it will take to finish a future task despite knowing that similar projects have taken longer in the past. For example, writers underestimate how long it will take to complete a Novel; product managers miscalculate how long a new feature will take to build.                                                                                                 Studies show that we underestimate how long it will take even when we know we're likely to underestimate timelines.

               Overcoming the planning fallacy:

                • Break projects down into smaller pieces and estimate how long each part will take.                                                                                                  • ∆dd 20% to your estimated completion time. It is better to plan for the unexpected than to be surprised by it.                                     • Use historical data to make better predictions. Don't think you'll be able to finish master next time.                                                                           • Limit the scope of work. Instead of extending the timeline, reduce the scope of work.                                                                                                 • Communicatie early and often if you're going to miss a deadline.